Stock investors will track the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Brent crude oil prices, inflation data and the US Fed interest rate decision for further cues this week, analysts said. Tariff-related news would also dictate trends in the equity market, experts noted.
Overall profitability in the agriculture sector is expected to be marginally higher at the pan-India level in the 2024-25 kharif season, driven largely by higher production and low input cost, but offset by the declining price of some produce, according to a report released by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd on Wednesday. The report said that region-wise farm profitability in the northern belt was expected to be relatively better than in the southern belt, while the eastern and western belts presented a mixed bag.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and news flow on tariffs are expected to influence movement in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for 'Mahashivratri'.
Brokerages on DMart Q3 results: Avenue Supermarts (DMart) shares slipped as much as 5.74 per cent to hit an intraday low of Rs 3,474 per share on Monday. However, the stock recovered slightly to close at Rs 3,507.95, down 4.82 per cent. Notably, the 52-week low for DMart shares is Rs 3,400. The downward movement in DMart's share price was triggered by the company's 2024-25 (FY25) October-December quarter (Q3) results, which missed Street expectations.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data announcements and global trends are the key factors that would dictate the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said.
After two years of strong gains, smallcap stocks fell sharply in 2025, but the correction may be setting up opportunities for long-term investors.
Equity investors are up for an eventful trading week ahead as the 90-day suspension period of the reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump ends on July 9, analysts said, adding that a positive outcome from the trade negotiations could further lift market sentiment, particularly benefiting trade-sensitive sectors.
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
As the rally in precious metals takes centre stage in 2025, most analysts recommend a larger allocation to gold over silver despite the latter's outperformance this year. In the current calendar year (CY25), spot gold prices in dollar terms rallied
Momentum funds can be 10 to 15 per cent more volatile than the Nifty 50.
Stock markets are in for an event-heavy week ahead with a raft of Q1 earnings from blue-chips, the US Fed interest rate decision and foreign investors trading activity driving investors' sentiment, analysts said. Macroeconomic data announcements, monthly auto sales numbers and global market trends would also guide movement in the domestic equities, they said.
Gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the overall bias will continue to stay positive amid heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in its September policy meeting, analysts said. Traders will closely track US macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and speeches from Fed officials, which will provide more insights into the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of the bullion sentiment, they added.
Top real estate developers are expected to report improved earnings and resilient presales growth, even as overall housing sales across major Indian cities declined during the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2025-26. The anticipated earnings growth in what is typically a subdued quarter is credited to steady sustenance sales, improved collections, the strong positioning of listed developers, and sustained demand for premium homes.
Global trends, tariff-related updates and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key drivers for the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Markets witnessed a strong rebound last week, with the benchmark indices surging over 4 per cent.
A lower risk appetite among investors has driven gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, to record highs so far this year. Fuelled by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, robust demand from central banks - particularly in Asia - and US President Donald Trump's tariff volleys, spot gold touched an all-time high of $2,956 per ounce on February 24 in the international markets.
A weaker-than-expected sales performance, concerns about higher competitive intensity in the current year, and earning cuts by some brokerages have weighed on the stock of the country's largest paint maker, Asian Paints. While the Q3 volume show was slightly below expectations, the company's operational and bottom line beat estimates, benefiting from the falling raw material costs. The stock ended the day with a decline of over 2 per cent at Rs 3,175 apiece.
Trading sentiment in the stock market this week will be guided by quarterly earning announcements from blue-chips such as Infosys and Bajaj Finance, the outcome of India-US trade talks and global cues, analysts said. Markets may on Monday react to the quarterly results of three heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, an expert said.
Strong margins in the jewellery segment in Q4FY25, steady growth guidance for FY26 and expectations of outperformance in the organised jewellery sector boosted sentiment for the largest listed jewellery maker by market capitalisation, Titan Company. The stock was the highest gainer on the benchmark indices (Sensex as well as Nifty), rising 4.1-4.5 per cent at close on Friday, taking the total gains over the past month to about 12 per cent.
Quant funds are a unique offering in the MF space as the investment decisions are driven by a blend of active and passive strategies.
Stock markets are expected to be driven by global trends and FPI trading activity this week after the conclusion of the earnings season, analysts said. Unabated foreign fund outflows, lower-than-expected quarterly earnings and global trade war fears hit market sentiments last week, where the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty extended their downward trend to the eighth day in a row on Friday.
Despite a healthy performance in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25), the stock of India's largest listed pharma company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma), was under pressure on Friday due to a muted guidance. The company has guided for a high single-digit revenue growth for FY26, which is below what the Street was working with.
Rise in input costs, inventory write-off, and pricing pressures led to a drop in gross margins. Higher competitive pressures led to cuts in operating profit margins and earnings estimates for FY24 and FY25. Most brokerages have a 'neutral' or a 'reduce' rating on the stock on account of valuations.
The stock of commercial vehicle (CV) company Ashok Leyland is up 46 per cent in the past three months, gaining despite worries about a slowdown in sales volume. Brokerages have a mixed view on the country's second-largest medium and heavy commercial vehicle manufacturer. The company reported steady March quarter results and its valuation, focus on growth and medium-term prospects are positive, but some brokerages are cautious, given near-term demand concerns and the risk of competition increasing in the industry.
The US Fed interest rate decision, global trends, tariff-related developments and trading activity of foreign investors will drive the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Among macroeconomic data announcement, WPI inflation for February is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
Bajaj Auto - the country's most valuable two-wheeler (2W) company by market capitalisation - met Street expectations in the January-March quarter (Q4) of 2024-25 (FY25) but still ended Friday as the worst performer on the Nifty 50, slipping 3.1 per cent.
A ban on US-based high-frequency trader (HFT) Jane Street did little to dent activity in the derivatives segment, with July volumes rising 10 per cent month-on-month to an eight-month high. Analysts and experts said the jump may have come from proprietary and retail traders, spurred by a spike in market volatility.
Stock markets will be mainly driven by quarterly earnings by corporates, foreign fund flows and global trends this week, analysts said.
'Such stocks may be useful for aggressive portfolios, but should not be part of the core holdings.'
The stock of Godrej Consumer Products Limited (GCPL) fell about 3.7 per cent in trade after its Q3FY24 earnings disappointed brokerages and led to downgrades. Further, the stock, after a 15 per cent run-up over the past month prior to Monday's correction, had already factored in the upside from the business front. Its peer in the consumer space, Marico, too, saw a 4 per cent drop in its stock price.
Indian information-technology (IT) service providers are likely to report another quarter (July-September) of low, single-digit growth owing to macro uncertainties, chiefly emanating from America, with no respite in sight even in the second half of the year.
Kajaria Ceramics, the country's leading listed tile manufacturer, has seen its stock fall by 7 per cent over the past month amid concerns about rising input costs and sluggish domestic demand. Other listed stocks also experienced weakness in September, although there was some recovery in October. While strong exports are expected to help stabilise domestic market prices, the surge in gas prices over the past couple of months may have impacted margins in the second half of FY24.
The equity market's recent downturn appears unlikely to slow the brisk pace of mutual fund (MF) scheme launches, at least in the coming weeks. Last month, fund houses introduced 21 new equity schemes, with another five launches already lined up for November. The number of filing with markets regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), suggests this momentum will continue with asset management companies (AMCs) seeking approval for 21 more equity schemes in October.
The stock of India's largest listed pure-play retail company, Avenue Supermarts (DMart), has slipped over 10 per cent from its monthly highs. A weak operational performance in the fourth quarter (January-March) of financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25) and muted near-term outlook due to intense competitive pressures and higher costs could lead to downward momentum on the stock. While the stock dipped by 3.44 per cent in early trade on Monday, it recovered a bit to close 1.07 per cent lower at 4,017.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Net profit of 19 listed banks is likely to decline by 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for the quarter ended March (Q4FY25) mainly due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) as a result of rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts' estimates. Additionally, loan growth is expected to further slowdown amid low demand in certain secured products, stress in the unsecured segment, and a high cost to deposit (CD) ratio across the system.
Stock market participants would track global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in a holiday-shortened week ahead, amid lack of any major domestic trigger in sight, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Christmas.
Inflows into equity mutual fund (MF) schemes declined in May, logging their lowest tally in 13 months at Rs 19,013 crore. It came even as the gross systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows surged to a record high of Rs 26,688 crore.
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
Brokerages lowered their earnings estimates following muted results in Q1FY24. While analysts remain optimistic about the stock's medium-term prospects, they highlight near-term concerns stemming from lower realisations due to changes in the product mix and margin pressures resulting from new plane additions.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
